Hurricane outlook

an email from one of my insurance company reps stated:

NOAA Hurricane Forecast:  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its forecast for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA is forecasting 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes between the months of June and November for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA’s report indicates that a near-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is anticipated in 2012, primarily due to three competing climate factors: 1) the continued warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation signal; 2) expected near-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and 3) the possible development of El Niño during the upcoming summer. NOAA forecasters note that if El Niño does develop during the peak development months of August-October, that the overall number of named storms will likely fall towards the lower end of the projected range.

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